Quick answer: National car insurance rates are close to flat in 2026 (Insurify's October tracker: $187 a month for full coverage), but Illinois has risen faster than the U.S. average. The cost of fixing a car keeps climbing through repair severity, imported parts, tariffs and sensor calibration, which land in claims first and premiums later. Read your renewal declarations page, separate coverage changes from price changes, ask about discounts, set deductibles you can afford, and re-quote identical coverage about 30 days before renewal. Never let coverage lapse.
If your fourth-quarter auto renewal went up while the headlines say car insurance has "stabilized," both things are true: national averages are nearly flat, and plenty of individual renewals in Illinois and Texas are still rising. Here is where rates stand, what is pushing claim costs, how much of the tariff story is still projection, what the new Illinois law changes, what Texas filings show, and what to do before your renewal date.
Where Do Car Insurance Rates Stand in Late 2026?
Insurify's October 2026 rate tracker puts the national average at $187 a month for full coverage, which it says "held steady" through August, and $99 a month for liability only, up from $98. Insurify's figures run through September 2026.
That flatness follows a volatile stretch: Insurance Journal reported in February 2026 that the average full-coverage premium fell 6% in 2025 after rising 46% from 2022 to 2024. Insurify's mid-year report then found full coverage rose 1% in the first half of 2026 to $2,237 a year and projects $2,242 at year end, a 1% year-over-year increase.
A second tracker agrees on direction. ValuePenguin's State of Auto Insurance 2026, built on S&P Global RateWatch filing data, puts the national full-coverage average at $208 a month and expects a 0.67% increase in 2026, the smallest since 2022. Its dollar figures differ from Insurify's because the methods differ (approved filings versus quoted premiums); the flat trend does not.
By state:
- Illinois: $162 a month for full coverage and $84 for liability in Insurify's October tracker, with a projected 2% increase by year end. Insurify's mid-year report found Illinois full-coverage premiums rose about 4% ($76) in the first half of 2026 to $1,930 a year, and that Illinois premiums are up 41% over three years, nearly double the 21% U.S. rise. ValuePenguin's filing-based data points the other way, expecting a 4.26% Illinois decrease in 2026.
- Texas: $204 a month for full coverage and $110 for liability in Insurify's October tracker; its mid-year report found Texas premiums fell about 2% ($55) in the first half of 2026 to $2,461 a year. ValuePenguin says Texas rates rose 60.97% from 2020 to 2025, the largest five-year increase in the country.
Why Did My Renewal Go Up If the National Average Is Flat?
An average blends thousands of rate changes. Your renewal reflects one carrier's filed rate in your territory, applied to your vehicle, drivers, coverage and discounts. Insurers file on their own schedules (ValuePenguin expects five of the ten largest to lower rates in 2026 while others raise them), a newer car with cameras and sensors costs more to fix, and a ticket, claim, added teen, lapsed discount or new ZIP code can move your number more than any statewide trend. See what affects your auto insurance rate.
What Is Actually Driving the Cost of a Claim?
Underneath every rate filing is the cost of paying claims. The drivers in the sources, and who feels them most:
| Cost Driver | What It Is | Who It Hits Most |
|---|---|---|
| Repair severity | Auto repair costs rose 45% over five years, double inflation (Insurify's mid-year report, citing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data); collision claim costs rose 42% and bodily injury 36% from 2020 to 2024 (Insurify, citing the Insurance Information Institute) | Anyone carrying collision and comprehensive, especially on newer vehicles |
| Imported parts and tariffs | About 60% of parts used in body shops are imported from Mexico, Canada and China (APCIA, as reported by Fortune); tariffs raise repair prices, with a 12-to-18-month lag before premiums | Drivers of imported brands and vehicles with few domestic parts sources; full-coverage policies |
| ADAS sensor calibration | Calibration lines appeared on 34.7% of repair estimates in 2025, up from 12.1% in 2022, at an average $688 per estimate when present (Enlyte's 2026 Envision Trends report, as reported by Insurance Business) | Owners of 2018-and-newer vehicles with cameras, radar and driver-assist features |
| Total losses | CCC's 2026 Crash Course reports a record 23.1% of claims ending in total loss, with an average repair cost of $4,818 | Owners of older or lower-value vehicles, where a moderate repair exceeds the car's value |
| Electric vehicles | ValuePenguin finds the top nine EVs average $309 a month to insure, 18% more than comparable gas cars (down from 23% in 2025) | EV owners, particularly of EV-only brands |
| Injury and litigation costs | Bodily injury is the costliest claim type; Insurify notes Georgia and Florida, which passed litigation reforms, saw rates fall in the first half of 2026 | Every driver, through liability premiums; most in high-litigation states |
The pattern: each crash costs more even as crashes become less frequent. Insurance Business's September 2026 report on the Enlyte and CCC data cites an IIHS/HLDI analysis finding collision severity about 10% higher for vehicles with driver-assist features, which nonetheless reduce claim frequency. For EVs specifically, see our electric vehicle insurance guide.
How Much Could Tariffs Add to Car Insurance?
Every number in this section is a projection, and the published estimates do not agree. What is not in dispute: a large share of collision parts is imported, and tariffs raise their price. Fortune reported in February 2025 on an APCIA analysis finding that 60% of auto parts used in body shops come from Mexico, Canada and China, and APCIA's Bob Passmore told Fortune a parts tariff would take roughly 12 to 18 months to reach insurance bills.
The scenarios, all estimates:
- APCIA, about 2.7%: as reported by Claims Journal in June 2025, APCIA estimates (a figure its predecessor trade group first published in 2018 and restated in 2025) that a 25% tariff on imported repair parts, all else static, could raise auto repair claim costs 2.7%, roughly $3.4 billion in personal auto premiums.
- Insurify, about 4%: in a June 2026 article republished by InsuranceNewsNet, Insurify projected a baseline 1% rise in 2026 full-coverage premiums and estimated they could rise about 4% if tariffs significantly increase repair and replacement costs.
- Industry analysts, about 8%: the same article notes some analysts estimate 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and components would raise insurance costs roughly 8% beyond underlying inflation. Insurify's own early-2025 scenario also landed at 8% with tariffs versus 5% without, though Insurify notes tariff policy has changed since.
The spread reflects different assumptions about tariff rates, countries and timing: the June 2026 article notes newer trade agreements set 15% tariffs on vehicles and many parts from Japan, South Korea and the European Union, below the 25% in earlier models, and Insurance Journal's February 2026 report called the tariff effect a "wildcard" insurers had not yet passed on. If tariffs do raise repair costs materially, the effect arrives through 2026–2027 filings, carrier by carrier, one more reason to compare rather than assume every insurer moves the same way.
What Does the New Illinois Law (SB 714) Mean for Your Renewal?
Illinois passed auto rate-review legislation this year. Capitol News Illinois reported that Senate Bill 714 passed the House 70-38 on May 27, 2026, alongside House Bill 4273 for homeowners, and CollisionWeek reported Gov. JB Pritzker signed it on August 4, 2026, as Public Act 104-0753. Our Illinois rate-review law explainer covers the whole law; the auto highlights:
- Effective July 1, 2027. Nothing in the law applies to a fourth-quarter 2026 renewal.
- Rate review. The Illinois Department of Insurance can review auto rate filings, challenge those that are "excessive, inadequate or unfairly discriminatory," and require rebates when consumers are overcharged; a filing stays in effect while any hearing is pending.
- Notice. At least 30 days' notice before a renewal premium rises more than 10%, and, per Insurance Business, 60 days' notice of deductible or coverage changes.
- No ban on ZIP code or credit factors. Capitol News Illinois notes the bill does not prohibit using residential ZIP codes or credit scores to set premiums; see credit scores and insurance rates.
- Discounts for drivers 55 and older. Expanded access to premium discounts for drivers 55+ who complete an approved defensive-driving course.
Industry groups opposed the law, arguing in a joint statement reported by Capitol News Illinois that it does not address root causes (rising repair costs, severe weather and legal system abuse) and that consumers "could ultimately pay the price through higher insurance costs." Either way, today's rules apply until July 2027. For minimum liability limits and penalties, see our Illinois auto insurance requirements guide.
What Is Happening With Texas Auto Rates?
Texas insurers must file auto rates with the Texas Department of Insurance before using them, and TDI reviews them for compliance. In June 2026, TDI launched a public search tool for home and auto rate filings; at TDI's rate-filing search page you can look up your insurer's filed percent change and effective dates (search by the company name on your declarations page).
On October 8, 2026, TDI reported that since July 1, auto insurers had filed rate decreases affecting 4.4 million policyholders, with the examples it named ranging from 3% to 10.3%. Insurance Commissioner Amanda Crawford said that "as rates moderate, Texans should take advantage of the competitive market." That is regulator-speak for: shop.
If your Texas renewal went up anyway, your carrier may simply be on a different cycle than the ones filing decreases. When you compare, remember the floor: TDI's auto insurance guide sets minimum liability at $30,000 for injuries per person, $60,000 per accident and $25,000 for property damage (30/60/25); Texas policies also include personal injury protection unless you reject it in writing, and insurers must offer uninsured/underinsured motorist coverage. We serve Texas drivers from our San Antonio office; see our San Antonio, Fort Worth and Houston auto insurance pages.
What Should I Do Before My Renewal? A Step-by-Step Plan
Step 1: Read the renewal declarations page, not just the bill
Put this year's declarations page next to last year's and check each coverage, limit, deductible and discount before the premium. Our guide to reading an auto policy walks through each line.
Step 2: Separate coverage changes from price changes
Did a driver get added or removed? Did the carrier change a limit, drop rental reimbursement or move a deductible? If coverage changed, the price comparison is not apples to apples until you account for it.
Step 3: Ask about discounts you now qualify for
Life changes create discounts: a driver who turned 25, a good student, a shorter commute, a home to bundle, a 55+ defensive-driving course, telematics, paid-in-full or autopay. They do not add themselves. Our guide to lowering auto rates in Illinois lists the common ones.
Step 4: Set deductibles sensibly
Raising collision and comprehensive deductibles lowers those premiums, but only pick a number you could pay tomorrow without borrowing. On an older, low-value vehicle, ask your agent whether collision and comprehensive still make sense. Do not cut liability limits to save money.
Step 5: Re-quote identical coverage across carriers about 30 days out
Thirty days leaves time to compare, bind a new policy with a matching effective date, and decide without pressure. Every quote must carry the same limits, deductibles and endorsements as your renewal. An independent agent can price the same coverage across many carriers at once; at Better Choice we compare 22+ carriers, and our quick quote form takes about three minutes before a licensed agent calls you back.
Step 6: Never let coverage lapse
If you switch, bind the new policy first with an effective date matching your renewal date, then cancel the old one in writing. Even a one-day gap can mean penalties and higher rates with every carrier afterward. Our guides on switching auto insurance without a lapse and what to do when any renewal goes up cover the sequence. If you have a question about how your rate was calculated, ask your agent or contact your state's Department of Insurance.
The Bottom Line
Car insurance is not surging the way it did in 2023 and 2024, but it is not getting cheaper for everyone. Claims cost more as repairs get more complex, tariff effects are mostly still ahead and still projections, Illinois has climbed faster than the national average, and Texas is easing from a high base. None of that tells you whether your renewal is a fair price for your coverage. Only a comparison does.
That is what we do for clients in St. Charles, Kane County, Chicago and Texas: we review every renewal and re-shop when an increase is out of line. If your current carrier is still your best value, we will tell you that too.
Got an auto renewal that went up? Send us the declarations page and we'll compare the identical coverage across 22+ carriers. Free, no obligation, about three minutes online and a licensed agent calls you back. Rated 4.9 stars on Google from 123+ reviews.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are car insurance rates going up or down in late 2026?
Mostly flat at the national level. Insurify's October 2026 tracker puts the national average at $187 a month for full coverage, unchanged through August, and $99 a month for liability only, up $1. Insurify projects full coverage will end 2026 about 1% higher than it started. State results vary widely: Insurify's mid-year report shows Illinois full-coverage premiums up about 4% in the first half of 2026 while Texas fell about 2%.
Have tariffs already raised my car insurance?
Probably not much yet, and any effect is hard to isolate. APCIA has said it can take 12 to 18 months for higher parts prices to show up in insurance bills, and Insurance Journal reported in February 2026 that insurers had not yet passed tariff-related repair costs to consumers. Published figures are projections: Insurify's roughly 4% scenario for 2026, an approximately 8% estimate from industry analysts, and APCIA's estimate that a 25% tariff on imported repair parts could raise auto repair claim costs about 2.7%, or about $3.4 billion.
Does the new Illinois auto insurance law lower my rate?
Not directly, and not yet. Senate Bill 714, now Public Act 104-0753, takes effect July 1, 2027. From then, the Illinois Department of Insurance can review auto rate filings against an excessive, inadequate or unfairly discriminatory standard, insurers must give at least 30 days' notice before raising a renewal premium more than 10%, and discount access for drivers 55 and older who complete an approved defensive-driving course expands. The law does not ban ZIP code or credit-based factors, and it does not apply to renewals before July 2027.
Should I raise my deductible to offset a rate increase?
Sometimes. Raising collision and comprehensive deductibles lowers the premium for those coverages, but only choose a deductible you could pay tomorrow without borrowing. If your vehicle's value has fallen to the point where the premium for collision and comprehensive is a large share of what the car is worth, ask your agent whether the coverage still makes sense. Do not reduce liability limits to save money; a serious at-fault accident costs far more than the premium difference.
How does Better Choice help with an auto renewal that went up?
Better Choice Insurance Group is an independent agency that compares 22+ carriers. Send us your renewal declarations page and we match the coverage line by line, check for discounts you now qualify for, and show you what the rest of the market charges for identical coverage. Quotes are free and carry no obligation; the online form takes about three minutes and a licensed agent calls you back. For our own clients, we review every renewal and re-shop when an increase is out of line.
Related Reading
- Your Insurance Renewal Went Up. Here's Exactly What to Do Next
- The Illinois Insurance Rate-Review Law, Explained
- How to Switch Auto Insurance Without a Lapse
- What Affects Your Auto Insurance Rate
- How to Lower Auto Insurance Rates in Illinois
- Illinois Auto Insurance Requirements
About the author
Evan Larson — Licensed Insurance Agent at Better Choice Insurance Group, an independent insurance agency in St. Charles, Illinois licensed in 14 states.
Last reviewed: October 2026